Boston Real Estate

I thought I’d update the blog post I wrote earlier this year ‘”A Boston Buyers Agent Says Skip the Spring Market, Wait Until Autumn” Now that the tax incentive has passed, the buyers who are interested in Boston Condos for September 1st will be the next wave of buyers to clear out. To get something for September 1st a buyer would have to commit to the purchase by August 1st.

In the stock market we would call what is about to happen from August 1st to October 15th 2010 a cyclical buyers market inside a secular buyers market . I’ll explain. Real Estate generally speaking is in the middle of a secular buyers market in a macroeconomic sense. This started in the second half of 2008 and can go on for several years. At the same time Boston Real Estate enters a cyclical (shorter term) buyers market every year on August 1st and goes through to say January 15th 2011 or so each and every year. Although the cycle actually goes to January 15th, after October 15th sellers start to take their properties off the market for the holidays.

Sellers start to realize that its now or next spring!

At the beginning of August the buyers gain strength and the bidding wars will stop. Buyers won’t even be going to open houses never mind participating in bidding wars. This is when to start thinking about putting in an offer if you find something you like. Chances are that yours will be the only offer at that time. This situation gets better for the buyers and worse for the sellers right through January 2011. The lowest prices per square foot are accomplished in November and December every year.

The problem with waiting until November is that a lot of sellers may have taken their property off the market until the spring 2011 market. They don’t want showings and open houses during the holiday season. So the available layouts can be limited. Its my opinion that the perfect timing would be between August 1st and October 15th or so.

Boston Real Estate Secular Buyers Market

This cyclical buyers market inside the larger secular buyers market will make for some good buys. When two cycles overlap like this it means even more downward pressure on prices. Of course this is Boston and Boston Suburbs so don’t expect anyone to give their property away.

Please don’t call me if you are a bargain hunter who thinks they can steal a property for under fair market value. Buyers Agency is an alignment with truth. After I do the quantitative analysis of the property I give my buyers a short range of fair market value within which they are in no danger of overpaying. This is job number one for a Buyers Agent of course. If the asking price is above my number, I don’t recommend the purchase.

Do everyone a favor and be willing to pay fair market value for the Boston Home you are interested in.

This may be the best time to buy this year but who knows about next year. In fact my personal opinion after spending the last 15 years studying the markets is that the recovery in the economy will continue and with it there will be a firming up of Boston Home prices. At the FOMC meeting the Fed left rates unchanged with no signs of inflation. The Fed, in their post meeting statement said that “ The economic recovery is proceeding”.

If this recession follows the pattern of the last five, by next spring there will be no looking back as home prices should start firming up and moving higher.

Please don’t take this as a market prediction. Just because the economy has recovered this way for the last five consumer lead recessions doesn’t mean it will happen that way again. Markets have an uncanny tendency to do the opposite of whatever the general consensus of opinion is saying. The only thing we know for sure is what has happened. We know what properties have sold for and a few other stats and that is all we have. Everything else that can be said about any particular property is too strongly influenced by conjecture and personal opinion, the Buyers Agent’s enemies. To these facts regarding sold statistics, we add our human brain which is so good at spotting playable patterns in the markets.

Written By RE/MAX Destiny Accredited Buyers Agent Jeff Persons – 617-512-3443

Jeff is a former stock trader and a student of the markets.

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