Boston Real Estate

Here comes the end of the spring market in Boston Real Estate. My feeling after reading the latest financial news is that the bear market in Boston Real Estate is about to resume. This agrees with my W bottom prognosis that I wrote about in this article “Will The Boston Real Estate Market Come Back? Check With Me Next Year”

Market bottoms tend to trace out a W shape at the bottom. It happens in all markets and actually represents human nature but that’s a story for another day.

Although this will mean even fewer than normal transactions between July 15th (the cut off point for Sept occupancy) and March 2011, I’m not at all sure it will affect PRICES in downtown Boston. For prices to decline during this second dip, demand for downtown would have to let up. That doesn’t seem to happen and I’m firmly in the camp of ” I’ll believe it when I see it.”

Here is the chart that displays the first part of the W bottom we have put in:

The second half of the W is sometimes mistakenly referred to as a “double dip”. This is not a double dip recession yet, although in Boston Real Estate it will feel like it. This is just the second half of the bottom we should be putting in this Autumn/Winter and it will be slowly graphed out between here and spring of 2011, just like it did in 1992(see above). In the meantime, I think that this second move down may be the last good buying opportunity in an expensive city that will get more expensive after the W is complete.

Market predictions are BS but some patterns repeat themselves in technical analysis like the chart above. I’m so good at being wrong sometimes that all my predictions are presented with these two caveats:

“Barring any unforeseen disasters and other exogenous events.”

and

“Just because this pattern of the W bottom has happened at the end of the last 5 consumer lead recessions, doesn’t mean it will happen that way again, ever.”

Written by RE/MAX Destiny Accredited Buyers Agent Jeff Persons 617-512-3443